胡云一

西南财经大学 讲师

主要研究方向：产业政策对新能源产业的影响，环境规制与经济发展。

电子邮箱: huyunyi@swufe.edu.cn       简历       English version

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教育背景

  • 2016-2022 上海交通大学 经济学博士
  • 2012-2016 华东师范大学 学士
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已发表和已经接收的文章

  1. Subsidy Phase-out and Consumer Demand Dynamics: Evidence from the Battery Electric Vehicle Market in China. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 107(2): 458-475,2025. (with Haitao Yin and Li Zhao)
    Student Paper Award at CES 2021 conference
    [Abstract]   [Paper]
    This article quantifies the impact of the battery electric vehicle subsidy program in China. We build a structural model of dynamic demand and Bertrand Nash supply to study price elasticity and changes in production costs. The model highlights four channels through which the subsidy program impacts the market: temporal elasticity, in response to a current price change; intertemporal elasticity, in response to a future price change; and multiplication effects through peer and learning by doing. Combining these estimates, we simulate outcomes under four subsidy schemes and find a phase-out policy could be the most cost-effective while achieving higher sales promotion compared with alternative policies that provide larger subsidies over more prolonged periods.
  2. Effectiveness and Efficiency of Incentivizing Policies for New Energy Vehicles: from the Perspective of the Powertrain Type. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. Accepted. (with Yuhan Liu and Xuemei Zheng)
    [Abstract]
    With increasing pressure on global resources and environment, governments worldwide, including those in China, the USA, and the EU, have implemented numerous policies to promote the adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs). However, the effectiveness and efficiency of these policies remain ambiguous; this is particularly the case given the diverse utilities and externalities associated with different vehicle powertrain types. In this context, this paper systematically analyzes China’s NEV incentives from the powertrain type perspective, utilizing structural demand estimation across Chinese municipalities from 2020 to 2023. It also quantifies consumers’ willingness to pay for NEVs and the induced welfare under counterfactual policy schemes. The findings suggest that while the incentives for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid (PHEVs), and range extended electric vehicles (REEVs) are all effective, the welfare gains cannot offset the promotion cost, leading to a net social welfare loss. It implies that incentive schemes should be tailored by powertrain type for efficiency: to maximize NEV adoption, uniform policies should be implemented across all NEV types; however, to minimize welfare losses, purchase-phase monetary subsidies and usage-phase incentives should target at BEVs, while only usage-phase incentives should be retained to PHEVs and REEVs.
  3. Environmental regulation and foreign investment: Evidence from China. Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 31(4): 862-883, 2022. (with Haitao Yin and Jon J. Moon)
    [Abstract]    [Paper]
    This paper estimates the impact of environmental regulation on foreign investment using the 2003 Pollution Discharge Fee Reform in China as a quasi-natural experiment. Using a Difference-in-Differences method to investigate foreign investment from 2000 to 2007, we propose the “Pollution Deterrence Hypothesis” and the “Green Strategy Hypothesis” and provide evidence for the debate between these two hypotheses. We find that foreign investors' strategic responses to enhanced environmental regulations depend on their initial shareholder status in a firm. More specifically, after increased environmental regulation, foreign investors are less likely to invest in pollution-intensive firms in which they have held relatively small shares. However, foreign investors are more inclined to increase their shares in pollution-intensive firms in similar situations if they already held a relatively large number of shares. Based on the heterogeneous analysis, we suggest that our results are most apparent in regions with better local governance.
  4. How has Tesla’s entry affected China’s electric vehicle market? Applied Economics Letters, 31:6, 503-507, 2024. (with Haitao Yin, Li Zhao and Xiaodi Luo)
    [Abstract]    [Paper]
    We study the impact of Tesla’s entry on China’s electric vehicle (EV) market. We find that Tesla’s entry has substantially increased the demand for EVs in China, and therefore has benefited Chinese EV producers. However, we also find that this positive impact was nullified for local EV producers that compete with Tesla in a more head-to-head manner, and those that compete in markets that host Tesla Galleries and have a higher annual income per capita. Moreover, local manufacturers lowered their EV prices when faced with competition from domestically produced Tesla vehicles, and the magnitude of such price reductions was larger for battery electric vehicle (BEV) models.
  5. The dilemma for China’s national carbon trading market: minimizing carbon abatement costs or maximizing net social benefits. Carbon Neutrality, 1-22, 2022. (with Feng Wang and Haitao Yin)
    [Abstract]    [Paper]
    After a decade of planning and trials, China officially launched a national carbon trading in July 2021. Using a standard economic model, this study shows that an unconstrained carbon trading market would face a dilemma between minimizing pollution control costs and maximizing social benefits. We further show that this would be a significant challenge in China. Our results show that areas with higher population densities also would have higher costs for carbon reduction, and hence the polluters in those areas would be net buyers in the national market. Moreover, our analysis indicates a significantly high correlation between carbon dioxide emissions and other local pollutants. Therefore, cross-regional transactions may result in more emission of other pollutants in areas with higher population density under the unconstrained national cap-and-trade system and cause larger losses in social benefits. We call for more studies to address the issue.
  6. Localized Implementation: Economic and Environmental Impact of the Belt and Road in China. Journal of East Asian Studies. 21, 237-257, 2021. (with Haitao Yin and Xu Tian)
    [Abstract]    [Paper]
    China's overcapacities in manufacturing industries, including pollution-intensive industries, served as an important motivation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The popular Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) therefore expects that the initiative will lead to the relocation of polluting industries from China to the recipients. Focusing on the implementation by local governments, we argue that actual outcomes of the BRI depend on the way local states and businesses respond to the BRI in accordance with their preferences. Through investigating industries’ actual responses to the BRI, we found that pollution-intensive industries have not relocated but rather expanded exports to the BRI countries. This has two implications: on the one hand, it alleviates the overcapacity issue in China and helps sustain the economic performance of the industry; on the other hand, it results in more pollution within Chinese borders and aggravates the environmental challenges facing the country.
  7. Trade Impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: From Resource and Environmental Perspectives. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 150 (November), 2019. (with Xu Tian, Haitao Yin, Yong Geng and Raimund Bleischwitz)
    [Abstract]    [Paper]
    China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) is a major global initiative with severe implications for economies, policies and societies; yet its impacts on environment and natural resource use have received little attention. This paper fills such a gap by assessing environmental and resource impacts of China’s international trade with those BRI countries after the start of the BRI in 2013. Despite potential concerns on problem shifting, we find that China’s net export growth after the BRI is concentrated in pollution-intensive and resource-intensive industries, compared to what would happen otherwise, and therefore increases China’s domestic environmental and resource burden. This alleviates the concern over a migration of pollution and resource exploitation from China to other BRI countries and provides valuable insights to the Chinese policy makers. Several policy recommendations are raised in order to improve the overall sustainability of China’s BRI.

工作论文

  1. The Competitive Effects of Vertical Integration and Foreclosure. (with Junji Xiao)
  2. When Subsidies Meet Spillovers: Evidence from New Energy Vehicle Market in China. (with Juncong Guo and Haitao Yin)
    [Abstract]
    The impact of purchase subsidies on product sales and market competition becomes uncertain when spillover effects across products are considered. Positive spillovers may magnify the impact of subsidies on the sales while negative spillovers may attenuate it. The direction and relative magnitudes of these spillovers can vary significantly depending on whether the products are within the same city versus across different cities. By spatial econometric models, this paper finds negative intra-city spillovers and positive inter-city spillovers across new energy vehicle (NEV) products in the Chinese market. The counterfactual analyses suggest that the presence of spillovers in China's NEV market not only augments the impact of subsidies in stimulating sales, but also helps to promote market competition. Meanwhile, under the factual subsidy scheme, these spillovers would not have significant negative environmental impacts. This study underscores the importance of accounting for both intra-city and inter-city spillovers in assessing the impact of purchase subsidy policies on sales, market competition and environmental outcomes.
  3. The Texas Grand Slam: Robbed by Red Tides? (with Jesse Backstrom)
    [Abstract]
    Blooms of Karenia brevis, colloquially known as “red tides,” release brevetoxins that disrupt marine ecosystems, harm human health, and impact coastal economies. This study estimates the social costs of red tides in Texas’ marine recreational fishing industry over 2004 to 2018. Using a rare panel dataset of monthly, site-level fishing pressures, we find that red tides reduce trips by 13% to 35%, depending on the severity of the bloom. Additionally, leveraging detailed Texas creel survey data, we estimate a discrete choice model and find anglers’ willingness to pay to avoid red tides ranges from $3 to $10 per trip, also depending on bloom severity. Our findings demonstrate the economic burden of an important coastal harmful algal bloom and suggest that improved satellite-based prediction, detection, and monitoring could help mitigate economic losses from bloom events.